Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2267
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 19:36:31

ACUS11 KWNS 281936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281936=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of west TX and extreme southeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281936Z - 282200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell or two may develop later this afternoon, with
a threat of isolated large hail and strong/severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus is gradually increasing across parts of the TX
Trans-Pecos region this afternoon, with recent lightning noted
across Culberson County. This initial development has been closely
tied to higher terrain, and this tendency may continue in the short
term, due to lingering MLCINH and generally weak large-scale ascent
across the region. While a midlevel shortwave trough will move
across northern NM later this afternoon and evening, it's influence
on the effective warm sector across west TX and far southeast NM
will likely remain limited, and coverage of thunderstorm development
later this afternoon remains uncertain. However, with MLCAPE
increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear,
it remains possible that a supercell or two will eventually develop.

Midlevel lapse rates are rather weak, but with favorably strong
mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear, any mature supercell than
can develop would pose a threat of large hail in the 1.5-2" range.
Isolated strong/severe gusts would also be possible. At this time,
coverage of the severe threat is expected to remain too isolated for
watch issuance.

...Dean/Hart.. 10/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7DvBV7D94Y00hm_a8dvdSLdDCZDzeFWLnvIR0hFhWc8MSAIOwCfLvbl_V6G4pVdW_wB-VPxoo=
yznVaTFMLSAW-LQ_N8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   30230391 30810423 31880465 32360379 32300329 32150290
            31580265 31120251 30770257 30090276 29840304 29890325
            29980352 30230391=20


=3D =3D =3D
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