Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 15:57:04

ACUS01 KWNS 281556
SWODY1
SPC AC 281555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into
the evening over parts of west Texas and extreme southeastern New
Mexico.

....West TX/Southeast NM...
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending from southeast
NM into west TX.  Strong daytime heating will occur to the south of
the front, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s - yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Weak large-scale forcing associated with an approaching shortwave
trough over NM will likely result in a widely scattered
thunderstorms along the front and over the higher terrain farther
south.  Forecast soundings appear sufficient for one or two
supercells capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds.  12z CAM
solutions suggest the coverage/confidence in intense cells is
limited, so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

...Hart/Thornton.. 10/28/2023

$$

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