Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 07:21:53

FOUS30 KWBC 280721
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023 - 12Z Sun Oct 29 2023

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...=20=20
=20
....Northeast TX into the Lower Ohio Valley...=20=20
Precipitable water values of 1.5-2.2" are expected near a
slow-moving front draped across the region ahead of a
strengthening positively tilted upper level trough.  The degree of
low-level inflow and effective bulk shear available should
continue to organize what should be ongoing convection Saturday
morning into training bands as the flow is fairly uniformly out of
the west-southwest with height.  MU CAPE of 500+ J/kg should be
sufficient to achieve hourly rain totals to 2.5" at times, which
would be a problem across area terrain, which should slowly lower
with time as instability slowly lessens.  Local amounts in the
3-5" range are indicated by the available guidance overall.  The
Slight Risk area from continuity looked within reason which was
shifted minimally based upon the most recent model guidance,
though extension farther back into northeast TX to accommodate the
new Moderate Risk area -- where spots have picked up 8"+ of rain
overnight -- appeared wise given ongoing rainfall and the threat
for additional heavy rains early on.=20
=20=20
Roth


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Mb9DZS7rtdMG4CSOb9nI9A9F9H24vsVG9zdXUA50GHD=
rFoBxmfO7H_6Jlhz7aa6MhmQ4X0svbtfYAVb7j-_CJqsxt4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Mb9DZS7rtdMG4CSOb9nI9A9F9H24vsVG9zdXUA50GHD=
rFoBxmfO7H_6Jlhz7aa6MhmQ4X0svbtfYAVb7j-_bZULaHQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Mb9DZS7rtdMG4CSOb9nI9A9F9H24vsVG9zdXUA50GHD=
rFoBxmfO7H_6Jlhz7aa6MhmQ4X0svbtfYAVb7j-_3UF94cc$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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