Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 06:50:30

ACUS03 KWNS 280650
SWODY3
SPC AC 280649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S., Monday through Monday night.

....Discussion...
Although mid/upper ridging near the North American Pacific coast may
undergo some weakening, models indicate that it will maintain
considerable amplitude through this period.  As it does, it appears
that a vigorous downstream short wave trough of Arctic origins will
continue to dig southeastward across the central Canadian/U.S.
border area through the mid Missouri/upper Mississippi Valleys by
late Monday night.  This is forecast to maintain positively tilted
larger-scale troughing across much of the interior of the U.S., in
the wake of a preceding short wave trough accelerating
east-northeast of the Great Lakes through St. Lawrence Valley and
Canadian Maritimes.

In lower levels, in the wake of a surface frontal wave migrating
offshore of the north Atlantic coast, a significant trailing cold
front is forecast to nose southward to the lee of the Blue Ridge,
through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, as well as across much of
the remainder of the lower Mississippi Valley and offshore of the
northwestern Gulf coast.  The shallow leading edge of the cold air
will continue to undercut a weak to modest lingering southerly
return flow across the northwestern Gulf coast through southern Mid
Atlantic vicinity, which could provide support for weak elevated
instability and areas of convective development.  However, with
colder air in mid-levels lagging to the northwest of this regime,
thermodynamic profiles may not support an appreciable risk for
lightning.

....Upper Great Lakes...
In the wake of the lead short wave impulse, cold mid-level air
(including -20 to -22 C around 700 mb) is forecast to linger across
the Lake Superior vicinity Monday through Monday night.  It appears
that steep lapse rates beneath this regime may remain supportive of
low-topped convection with occasional lightning, which could impact
Upper Michigan coastal areas.

...Kerr.. 10/28/2023

$$

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