Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 05:54:30 ACUS01 KWNS 280554 SWODY1 SPC AC 280552 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the evening over parts of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. ....Synopsis... A large-scale, positively tilted mid to upper-level trough will reside over the West into the central states, while an upper ridge persists from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Southeast. While modest low-level moisture will extend into parts of northern New England in advance of a cold front, weak lapse rates/instability should limit the potential for deep convection in this area, though a few gusty showers will be possible along the front. Farther southwest, the front is forecast to become nearly stationary from the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Plains, with weak convection possible along/north of the front through the day/evening. ....Southeast NM/west TX... To the immediate south of trailing portion of the front over the southern Great Plains, east-southeasterly low-level flow will maintain/advect relatively rich moisture across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin. Model guidance continues to indicate the front becoming stationary during the late morning and advancing slightly northward into the Permian Basin during the day. Ample heating will support MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg along and to the warm side of the boundary, with relatively strong deep-layer shear potentially supporting a supercell or two. The main limiting factor continues to be weak large-scale ascent during the diurnal heating cycle. Nonetheless, the latest simulated storm-scale guidance suggests the possibility for an isolated supercell risk and associated hail hazard, beginning perhaps during the late afternoon/early evening and persisting for a few hours. ...Smith/Squitieri.. 10/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .