Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 04:52:01 ACUS02 KWNS 280451 SWODY2 SPC AC 280450 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that amplified mid/upper ridging will be maintained through this period near the North American Pacific coast, from the mid-latitudes north-northwestward into Alaska. Downstream of this feature, one initial short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig across the central Canadian/U.S. border area, before accelerating eastward across the Upper Midwest/ Great Lakes vicinity as a stronger upstream impulse digs into the eastern Canadian Prairies. In lower latitudes, as broad mid-level ridging is also maintained across the Southeast into western Atlantic, and only slowly weakens across the Gulf of Mexico, large-scale troughing across the Southwest may undergo further deformation. But one or two embedded perturbations are forecast to translate east-northeast of the southern Rockies into the Great Plains. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging will be maintained across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies, while also building to the lee of the southern Rockies, from the central and southern Great Plains across the lower Rio Grande Valley, and into the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley. This cold air will continue to undercut a southerly return flow of moisture, which appears likely to persist across parts of the Rio Grande Valley into lower Ohio Valley, east-northeastward along a frontal zone into the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England. This moisture is forecast to contribute to weak elevated instability, and support scattered areas of convective development Sunday through Sunday night. It still appears probable that thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of lightning at least early in the period across parts of the Texas South Plains and Red River Valley. Otherwise, the extent to which layers of relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper levels limits this potential remains unclear. ...Kerr.. 10/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .