Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2265
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 27 2023 21:16:57

ACUS11 KWNS 272116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272116=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Illinois...eastern
Missouri...and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272116Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two is possible this evening with the
stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated at best,
and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in number
and intensity along a eastward-progressing surface cold front across
portions of the central MS Valley. Modest low-level convergence
along the cold front appears to be the primary forcing mechanism for
convection, with the preceding ambient environment characterized by
thin (500-1000 J/kg) SBCAPE profiles (driven by adequate low-level
moisture but poor tropospheric lapse rates), and elongated
hodographs. As such, the stronger storms could become multicellular
or perhaps briefly transient-supercellular, capable of producing a
couple of damaging gusts. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected
to be sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 10/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8tmhpFbl55NDdpB73fsjxyETp_PcSPU8hGBQNfvY9OJLl5-QkqnD_zkfo93YBUqT2GPBdO7i2=
uSntXRlNVHZtPE77XU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35089399 37409202 39208975 39638888 39648822 39288795
            38548809 38018851 36898965 35729123 35059244 35089399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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