Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 27 2023 17:26:28

ACUS02 KWNS 271726
SWODY2
SPC AC 271724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low on Saturday.

....Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will remain in place across most of the
CONUS on Saturday, while an upper ridge persists from the Gulf of
Mexico into parts of the Southeast. While modest low-level moisture
will extend into parts of northern New England in advance of a cold
front, weak lapse rates/instability should limit the potential for
deep convection in this area, though a few gusty showers will be
possible along the front. Farther southwest, the front is forecast
to become nearly stationary from the Ohio Valley into the southern
Plains, with weak convection possible along/north of the front
through the day/evening.

....Southeast NM/West TX...
Low-level east-southeasterly flow will advect seasonably rich
low-level moisture into parts of west TX and southeast NM, as the
front stalls and attempts to lift northward through the day. Diurnal
heating will support MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg along and
to the warm side of the boundary, with relatively strong deep-layer
shear supporting a conditional risk of supercell development.
However, large-scale ascent is expected to remain weak through the
diurnal cycle, and coverage of surface-based storm development
remains very uncertain. Also, even if a surface-based storm or two
develops during the late afternoon/evening, generally weak midlevel
lapse rates may temper storm intensity. Given these concerns, no
probabilities have been introduced in this outlook, though an
isolated severe threat could eventually evolve across parts of the
Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin region.

...Dean.. 10/27/2023

$$

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