Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 27 2023 07:17:16

FOUS30 KWBC 270717
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 27 2023 - 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX...=20
=20

....Northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex...=20=20
The anomalous PW axis across eastern Texas will begin to lift
northeastward into the ArkLaTex ahead of the strong cold front
sinking southeastward through the Central to Southern Plains.=20
This front is expected to slow its progression by Saturday morning
becoming nearly stationary from northeast Texas into northwestern
Arkansas.  The flow should be fairly unidirectional with height
near the stalling boundary.  Precipitation should become more
active along and ahead of this front late Friday afternoon into
the early hours of Saturday when well-defined frontal convergence
and favorable right entrance region jet dynamics enhance upward
vertical motions in the anomalous PW axis.  The model consensus is
for a narrow axis of potentially moderate to heavy totals along
this front from north Texas into southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas which should occur late Friday into early Saturday, aided
by the nocturnal low-level jet.  MU CAPE of 1000+ J/kg should
exist, along with increasing effective bulk shear to organize the
activity and lead to 2.5" in an hour, with local maxima towards 5"
possible as noted by the 00z HREF (40-45% chance of such).  A
Slight Risk was adjusted southeast based on the most recent
guidance.
=20=20
Roth=20


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_p5VAynNme1ogOfH4MdxOvND9NjZPwFlHv57wq7xf_kH=
WATAMgENfLccNk5vBkIU63zl4-iA04aqlV4MiLjJ52_7Y_Y$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_p5VAynNme1ogOfH4MdxOvND9NjZPwFlHv57wq7xf_kH=
WATAMgENfLccNk5vBkIU63zl4-iA04aqlV4MiLjJvLGKI8U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_p5VAynNme1ogOfH4MdxOvND9NjZPwFlHv57wq7xf_kH=
WATAMgENfLccNk5vBkIU63zl4-iA04aqlV4MiLjJGar_x3o$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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