Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 27 2023 07:01:23 ACUS03 KWNS 270701 SWODY3 SPC AC 270700 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period, with a prominent ridge being maintained just offshore of the U.S./Canadian Pacific coast into Alaska. Downstream, it appears that a lead short wave impulse emerging from the Arctic latitudes will contribute to substantive mid-level height falls across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys by late Sunday night. A stronger trailing perturbation is forecast to dig south of the western Canadian Arctic through the eastern Canadian Prairies. In lower latitudes, within a separate branch of westerlies across the Southwest, lingering larger-scale positively-tilted mid-level troughing may undergo further deformation, while downstream ridging across the southern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic gradually becomes suppressed. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will be maintained across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies, while continuing to build across the central and southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley and northwestern Gulf coast. Weak surface frontal wave development is possible across parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley and east of the Blue Ridge into the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England vicinity. However, destabilization supportive of thunderstorms is expected to largely remain confined to elevated moisture return above the cold front, particularly from the southern Great Plains into Mid South early Sunday. Convection may persist and spread or redevelop east-northeastward toward the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday through Sunday night. However, the potential for lightning might become further limited by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper levels. ...Kerr.. 10/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .