Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 27 2023 05:42:52 ACUS01 KWNS 270542 SWODY1 SPC AC 270541 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ....Synopsis... Strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the eastern Pacific, through the western states, and east-northeast into the Midwest. A potent mid-level disturbance will quickly move from the Upper Midwest northeastward into Ontario/Quebec, while an upstream trough digs into the northern Rockies. A surface low initially near Lake Superior during the morning will develop northeast into northern Quebec during the period. A trailing cold front will move east across much of the Midwest and push south into central TX. A seasonably moist airmass will protrude northeastward from the Arklatex to the central Great Lakes---featuring 70s dewpoints south and upper 50s to lower 60s north. Heating of the moist boundary layer during the day will result in MLCAPE around 500 J/kg over Lower MI. However, upper forcing for ascent will become increasingly displaced from Lower MI/southern Great Lakes during the day. The overall weakening large-scale support will probably limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity over Lower MI into the southern Great Lakes. The latest CAMs show different possible solutions, particularly in coverage/intensity of storms (i.e., 00z HRRR being the most aggressive). Given the majority of CAMs indicate limited potential, will defer the introduction of low-severe probabilities this outlook update. Farther south, scattered storm development is forecast near the front over north TX southward into the Hill Country. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ...Smith/Squitieri.. 10/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .