Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 26 2023 17:30:20

ACUS02 KWNS 261730
SWODY2
SPC AC 261728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

....Synopsis...
A longwave upper-level trough will remain in place over much of the
central/western CONUS on Friday, as upper-level ridging persists
over the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska and also across parts of
the Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Within the large-scale
trough, an embedded shortwave and related surface low will move
quickly from the upper Great Lakes toward northern Ontario and the
southern part of Hudson Bay. A trailing cold front will sweep
through portions of the Great Lakes, mid MS Valley, and
central/southern Great Plains.

Relatively moist conditions and modest diurnal heating will support
weak prefrontal buoyancy from parts of the Great Lakes into the mid
MS Valley, with somewhat stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) potentially developing across parts of Texas into the Ozark
Plateau. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will
be possible along/ahead of the cold front, though coverage and
intensity will likely be tempered by relatively weak midlevel lapse
rates and limited large-scale ascent in the wake of the departing
shortwave trough.

If deep convection can be sustained across the mid MS Valley into
the Great Lakes, effective shear of 25-35 kt could support a strong
storm or two, though weak instability should generally limit the
severe threat. Somewhat greater storm coverage is anticipated from
central/east TX into the ArkLaTex, where stronger instability is
expected, but weaker deep-layer shear in this region is expected to
limit storm organization.

...Dean.. 10/26/2023

$$

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