Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 26 2023 12:39:20

ACUS01 KWNS 261239
SWODY1
SPC AC 261238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....East TX vicinity...
A dampening southern-stream shortwave trough over KS will continue
to weaken as it moves northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes, while
an upstream shortwave trough over the northern Rockies ejects
towards the Upper Red River Valley. A belt of initially strong low
to mid-level flow will accompany the lead wave, but it will remain
mostly displaced behind an extensive swath of rain and very isolated
thunderstorms from the central Great Lakes through south-central TX
this morning. In addition, diurnal destabilization ahead of this
ongoing activity in TX will be limited by extensive cloudiness and
weak mid-level lapse rates. Still, the presence of high-quality Gulf
moisture characterized by an extensive swath of 70s surface dew
points ahead of the effective large-scale convective outflow
suggests that even weak insolation will be sufficient to boost
renewed thunderstorm development by this afternoon. Weakening
large-scale ascent/convergence and more importantly low-level shear
suggest that beyond a very low chance of a strong wind gust, the
overall severe threat appears negligible.

...Grams/Goss.. 10/26/2023

$$

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