Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 22:08:15

AWUS01 KWNH 252208
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-260405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Areas affected...South-Central Texas into South-Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252206Z - 260405Z

SUMMARY...Axis of heavy thunderstorms continues to drift east to
the Texas I-35 corridor through this evening. Rainfall of 2 to 5"
should cause scattered flash flooding through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Upper trough will continue to lift northeast from its
current position over eastern New Mexico through this evening. A
scattered line of thunderstorms continues to develop along a
surface trough on the east side of the dry conveyor belt/SSWly jet
east of this upper trough axis which remains anchored near Del Rio
with the northern portion drifting east over North Texas and
south-central OK. This area is in the right entrance region of
this SSWly jet which is aiding lift and further development. 30kt
southerly low level flow is providing ample moisture
advection/1.8" PW from south Texas where tropical moisture ahead
of the remnants of Otis is streaming in. Repeating activity is
occurring with slow eastward movement and recent max hourly
rainfall estimates are 1 to 2" from regional radars.

This slow eastward progression of heavy thunderstorms will persist
through the evening with deep mean layer flow holding steady at
SSWly around 40kt with SWly upwind propagation vectors and cold
pool development providing an eastward nudge. PWs surge up around
2" (2.5 to 3 standard deviations above normal) this evening,
particularly with the increasing LLJ with Sly 850mb flow reaching
35kt this evening. SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will allow
redevelopment with repeating activity bringing max hourly rainfall
up to 3". Recent HRRRs continue to project six-hour totals of 5",
but with the increased PWs these totals may be more common than
this afternoon. With 3hr FFG generally 2 to 2.5", scattered flash
flooding is considered likely, especially as the activity
approaches the more urbanized I-35 corridor.

Further development of heavy rain is likely overnight, so further
MPDs are expected on this prolonged heavy rainfall event lasting
through tonight.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!70suo1yLUEUjh3WbngwUY899FWKdRlR80JRi8Bt8w0NhZMmjAF6iG4v-wmtPPUHFhrSk=
VpoxTjy-tr5mGSu_3IrsX3A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34679712 34409622 32879674 31059731 29579816=20
            29159865 28689987 29270106 30880012 32049923=20
            33519843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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