Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 19:44:14

ACUS01 KWNS 251944
SWODY1
SPC AC 251942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX...

....SUMMARY...
Very isolated severe wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are possible
late this afternoon and evening across parts of north to
south-central Texas.

....20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk across Texas has been trimmed from the west, in
order to account for the progression of the convective outflow
associated with a slow-moving band of storms extending from parts of
the Edwards Plateau into north TX. Otherwise, no changes have been
made. See the MCD 2262 and the previous discussion below for more
information.

...Dean.. 10/25/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023/

....Southern Plains...
A modestly organized broken band of showers/thunderstorms persists
from near the Texas Big Bend north-northeastward into western North
Texas at midday, while scattered/mostly light showers are noted
ahead of it across central/north Texas. While some scattering has
occurred diurnally, prevalent low clouds will continue to limit the
degree of surface heating within a rather moist environment with
surface dewpoints near/above 70F. This combined with modest
mid-level lapse rates will likely maintain only weak MLCAPE north of
the Rio Grande Valley.

Persistent large-scale ascent will maintain regenerative showers and
thunderstorms atop the large-scale convective outflow, further
yielding gradual eastward progression of the outflow through the
day. Despite the limited surface heating, some diurnal uptick in
thunderstorm intensity will probably occur this afternoon. Given mid
to upper-level winds largely paralleling the large-scale outflow
boundary, appreciably organized convection appears unlikely. Still,
adequate low-level shear will exist for moderately enlarged
hodographs with a low-probability threat of a tornado and/or
localized severe wind gust. Heavy rain should be the primary
meteorological threat (see WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook).

....Central Great Plains...
Severe-thunderstorm potential regionally, including eastern portions
of Kansas/Nebraska into parts of Missouri/Iowa, is still expected to
remain limited by meager destabilization owing to prevalent
warm-sector cloud cover.

$$

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