Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 16:20:41

AWUS01 KWNH 251620
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Areas affected...Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251618Z - 252215Z

SUMMARY...Axis of heavy thunderstorms drifts east today over
south-central through North Texas. Rainfall of 2 to 5" should
continue to cause scattered flash flooding through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Upper low over northwest Mexico has opened into a
trough that will lift northeast to the TX Panhandle through this
evening. A surface trough of the east side of the dry conveyor
belt/SSWly jet ahead of this upper trough axis spanning
west-central TX and being a focus for tstm development per WV
imagery and regional radar. Central TX is in the right entrance
region of this SSWly jet with a near continuous SSW to NNE line of
convection spanning TX from Del Rio. Repeating activity is
occurring with slow eastward propagation latest hourly rainfall
estimates of up to 1.5" from regional radars.

This slow eastward progression of heavy thunderstorms should
persist through this afternoon With deep mean layer flow holding
steady at SSWly around 40kt with SWly upwind propagation vectors
providing an eastward nudge. However, PWs surge higher this
afternoon with Sly 30kt 850mb flow bringing the 2" PW currently
over south TX up through the Red River (which is 2.5 to 3 standard
deviations above normal) by this evening. This along with the
diurnal increase in instability will allow for heavier rain rates.
Where repeating is maximized, hourly rainfall will exceed 3" with
local multi-hour totals of 5" likely. With 3hr FFG generally 2-3",
scattered flash flooding is considered likely despite much of this
area being in exceptional drought.

Later on, activity will expand over the more vulnerable I-35
corridor, so further MPDs are expected on this prolonged heavy
rainfall event lasting through tonight.


Jackson=20

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8gDd9IK1olmUnoe0PgeWp2zfXQlwy7ICvYswaYVFRJeOKn9q1O9hpSwNYuamIvZxWguW=
kZIauhZbVgF_LfDp2wATngo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34189715 33409730 31519817 29979885 29109929=20
            28689987 28980074 30730033 32149960 33559857=20
            34149776=20

=3D =3D =3D
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