Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 15:13:12 AWUS01 KWNH 251513 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252110- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1157 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1112 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Areas affected...Central Kansas To Western Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 251511Z - 252110Z SUMMARY...Broad scale convergence continues to focus over central through eastern Kansas, allowing persistent development of training thunderstorms. This is likely to lift the focus of heavy rain and further flash flooding back north a bit over the I-35 corridor in east-central Kansas saw a deluge last night. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR over KS around 15Z depicts a meridional axis of thunderstorms over south-central KS into north-central OK with hourly rainfall estimates of 1 to 2" in the heaviest cells. Lighter, mostly showers with rain rates below 1"/hr extend east along/south of a stationary front across the rest of KS into MO which is the remnant outflow activity from an overnight deluge over east-central KS along the I-35 corridor where 3-8" fell overnight between Wichita and the southern KS metro. This is in advance of a shortwave trough axis stretching from southwest KS through the TX Panhandle per WV satellite imagery. SSWly 850mb flow of 25k-30kt continues to pump 1.6 to 1.7" PW air into this convergence over eastern KS/western MO with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE focused along the precip axes. The main concern is whether the activity over central KS can have enough instability to maintain heavy rain rates as it tracks east into this afternoon near the heavy rain axis from overnight. Recent HRRR runs do have the precip axis over eastern KS shift back north through midday which is a reasonable solution given the stronger flow. However, this surge north may not occur until this afternoon when flow backs more southerly. Either way heavy rain is expected to return along I-35 today with 1-3" additional inches forecast to 21Z, so flash flooding is considered likely over the I-35 corridor of KS. Outside of the most vulnerable areas, rainfall less than 3" should cause localized flash flooding concerns and overall continued drought relief. Given the slow motion of the parent system to the west, additional heavy rain is expected tonight over similar areas, so expect further MPD(s) tonight over eastern KS into MO. Jackson ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5lhdKwvIz6FghnN-fTHXVjQDhp_oB0jJniU0pzP0n_5OFogKYWkDmOWp9kd2d2oQXe9k= Vo-UJ_T4xEnkLOjOHap8JmQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39119458 38779398 38279412 37859452 37379589=20 37179681 36529773 36499839 36729863 37349849=20 38009832 38769763 39049600=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .