Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 12:52:12 ACUS01 KWNS 251252 SWODY1 SPC AC 251250 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ....SUMMARY... Very isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible across parts of north to south-central Texas, mainly this afternoon through early evening. ....Southern Great Plains... A persistent, but generally decaying swath of showers and thunderstorms extends across western OK through the Edwards Plateau of TX this morning. This eastern extent of this activity has generally been outpacing the bulk of 00Z to early morning CAM guidance. Extensive stratus exists ahead of this morning's convection and will limit diabatic surface heating. This combined with modest mid-level lapse rates will likely maintain only weak MLCAPE north of the Rio Grande Valley, despite the presence of rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints. Persistent large-scale ascent will maintain regenerative showers and thunderstorms atop the large-scale convective outflow, further yielding gradual eastward progression of the outflow through the day. Despite the limited surface heating, some diurnal uptick in thunderstorm intensity will probably occur this afternoon. Given mid to upper-level winds largely paralleling the large-scale outflow boundary, appreciably organized convection appears unlikely. Still, adequate low-level shear will exist for moderately enlarged hodographs with a low-probability threat of a tornado and/or localized severe wind gust. Heavy rain should be the primary overarching threat (see WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). ....Central Great Plains... A surface low exists over west-central KS, anchoring to a slowing cold front that extends to northeast KS before bisecting IA. 06Z NAM and 09Z RAP guidance both attempt to stall and then advance the trailing portion of this front northwest as a warm front across southeast NE by this evening. Near and south of the surface front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern KS into west-central MO. Given this activity along with extensive stratus ahead of and behind the frontal boundary, destabilization near the front will likely be quite limited today. While multiple rounds of thunderstorm development should persist through tonight, probabilities of severe hail and wind appear to be very low (sub 5 percent). ...Grams/Goss.. 10/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .