Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 09:06:07 AWUS01 KWNH 250906 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-251515- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1156 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 505 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas into West-central Missouri... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 250915Z - 251515Z SUMMARY...Stationary confluence boundary will continue to focus shallow-topped, but efficient showers through early morning.=20 Training along is likely to continue ongoing flash flooding situation from Emporia, KS to northwest of Ottawa,KS and may expand in coverage with time with additional 2-3" likely. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR continues to depict a band of broken shallow topped showers in the vicinity of I-35 which as already produced a swath of 3-6+" of rain through the very early morning hours resulting in flash flooding. The convection's weak cold pool generation and the overall mesoscale veering low to mid-level flow parallel to the effective boundary has generated a weak cold pool and favorable isentropic ascent slope. Surface to boundary layer solid 20-25kts of low level flow has been strengthening as the main synoptic height-falls advance out of the southern High Plains. As such, increased moisture convergence along the western edge of the WAA near I-135 is starting to increase convective activity across a moderately unstable environment with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from W OK into south-central KS. As such convection is expected to further expand over the next few hours upstream. Steering flow starts to veer across the effective boundary for further isentropic ascent while acting as a corridor for training cells. As such, the upstream cluster is expected to drop south-souteast toward this confluence boundary and add to the training potential, perhaps even expanding the flash flooding risk upstream a county or two into central KS. Deep warm cloud environment for the shallow cells and ample deep moisture to 1.75+" (genearlly 1.25-1.5" in the cloud depth) should maintain solid rain fall efficiency, even if the convective coverage remains broken throughout the morning hours. An additional 2-3" can be expected across an WSW to ENE axis perhaps in the vicinity of ongoing flash flooding.=20 While there remains some north-south uncertainty for the training axis across eastern KS, some recent Hi-Res CAMs including the HRRR suggesting a bit more surface/low level cold advection from the approach of the synoptic front to aid the weak cold pool generation from the ongoing convection. HREF probability of 3"+ is over 50% through 18z, providing some increased confidence versus earlier tonight. Even if the band sags south of the ongoing flooding along I-35, areas to the south have been affected yesterday as well with continued lowered FFG values over the Southern Flint Hills toward the OK boarder. As such, flash flooding will be considered likely through daybreak into the morning across E KS, perhaps expanding through or just the south of Kansas City.=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5RqyiGEP_8cOK1bRcuck00JT4LSxa4_HYdohwLqqMw4klVea8EYzAnQtTtj8dMCRSqq5= ZSvLk0wAHfAaDCEsYTbFnmw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39369416 39219346 38799321 38219346 37719530=20 37119650 37229738 37489772 38059806 38529852=20 38969838 39139786 38999656 39089556=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .