Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 05:58:09 ACUS01 KWNS 250558 SWODY1 SPC AC 250556 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail, are possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ....Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico today as south-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the southern Plains, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As surface heating takes place across the southern Plains, moderate instability is forecast to develop over parts of west-central and northwest Texas this afternoon. In response, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon and evening. Afternoon RAP forecast soundings from San Angelo to Wichita Falls have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. The severe threat will likely remain minimized due to relatively weak lapse rates. ....Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the central Plains. At the surface, strong moisture advection will occur across the central Plains as a weakly unstable airmass advects northward across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass this afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak near 1000 J/kg from northeast Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. In addition, 0-6 km shear in this areas is forecast to be in the 40 to 45 knot range. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible with cells that have access to the strongest instability late this afternoon and early this evening. Hail and a few marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Broyles/Wendt.. 10/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .