Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 05:09:10

ACUS02 KWNS 250509
SWODY2
SPC AC 250507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains Thursday morning
will weaken and become increasingly absorbed in northern stream flow
as it lifts northeast toward the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an
upper trough over the Intermountain West will develop eastward
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface,
southerly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the Mid-MO Valley toward the Lake Michigan
vicinity. Deeper boundary-layer moisture will reside further south
across OK/TX to the east of a dryline oriented across western TX.
After 00z, a sharp cold front is forecast to develop southeast
across the central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming oriented from
central WI into central OK and northwest TX by Friday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
from central TX into central/eastern OK, northeastward into the
Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes in a persistent warm advection regime.
This will limit heating, and poor lapse rates will further stunt
destabilization. MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg is possible across parts
of central/southeast TX where deeper boundary-layer moisture is
present. However, with weakening vertical shear through the day and
large-scale ascent shifting well northeast of the region, severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited. Further north from the
Mid-MO Valley into southern MN/WI, thunderstorms will be possible
through the morning and afternoon. Cooler surface temperatures and
weak low/midlevel lapse rates will limit instability, and despite
stronger vertical shear compared to further south, severe potential
appears low.

...Leitman.. 10/25/2023

$$

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