Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 03:36:03 AWUS01 KWNH 250335 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-250930- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1153 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1135 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...Southeast/East Kansas...Western Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 250335Z - 250930Z SUMMARY...Potential for widely scattered streaks of intense thunderstorms with conditional backbuilding within a favorable training steering flow crossing recently saturated grounds for additional 2-3", while confidence is lower than normal, the potential still rises for possible localized flash flooding overnight. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop depicts a narrow band of broken, low-topped sub-tropical showers in the vicinity of I-35 from near ICT to EMP before angling more eastward toward OJC. An enhanced axis of sfc to boundary layer moisture convergence exists along the western edge of a strong 50+ kt LLJ that is lifting out of the region with mid-level center of vorticity from the sub-tropical stream/remnants of TC Norma.=20=20 Surface wind response of 15-20kts generally through the Flint Hills is providing sufficient moisture flux/convergence to overcome a stabilizing low level environment/profile. However, the deep layer sub-tropical moisture axis still supports some sufficient lapse rates locally to maintain some weak updrafts through this axis. While upstream across central OK into W-central KS, instability/better lapse rates are within proximity to support redevelopment IF the western edge of the low level flow maintains convergence/confluence toward this remaining axis/outflow boundary from the ongoing convection. While there is ample uncertainty, especially as the LLJ streak lifts away reducing flow to 30-35kts after local midnight, effective isentropic ascent is possible for scattered low-topped thunderstorms to develop/back-build with slowing/reversing propagation vectors to the flow with time. Given the available moisture through the column and still very warm cloud depths (10-12Kft) for tropical shower/efficient rainfall production...rates of 1.5"/hr are still probable through the overnight period, especially along the languishing tail of low level flow/WAA channel across E KS/W MO. Very deep upstream digging upper-level trough will keep deep layer steering from the SW to SSW and support the potential for these backbuilding cells to repeat. As such streaks of additional 2-3" across the area of concern are possible, overlapping with areas of 1-2" (locally higher today), FFG values have already fallen and remain at risk of being exceeding given the efficiency of any shallow cells that do develop.=20 While the potential for flash flooding is highly conditional on storm scale moisture convergence to maintain cells or continue upstream redevelopment; given the compromised upper soil conditions, widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding is considered possible through 09z (and will continue to monitor thereafter). Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8x67L7ZcfSUNEDrwJy9ut7VDZ3pniK5bEcNpyInnJOd90VR5j1YWSPjFNfeqsDGbeNnB= a2EiUKugB4wdSQdgMKXP2ss$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39409424 39129386 38759394 38319434 37739506=20 37509545 37139621 37039710 37289772 37819780=20 38389740 38709681 39079580 39329482=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .