Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 25 2023 00:34:09

ACUS01 KWNS 250034
SWODY1
SPC AC 250032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts and
hail, will continue to be possible this evening over parts of the
southern High Plains.

....Southern High Plains...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northwestern
Mexico with a plume of mid-level moisture located in southwesterly
flow over the southern Rockies. Thunderstorms are ongoing within
this plume from eastern Arizona eastward into west Texas, where
surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP is
analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across much of
west-central Texas. As the storms continue to interact with the
northwestern edge of the moderately unstable airmass, the
instability combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, will
be likely be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Hail, along
with a few marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible with the
stronger cores over the next few hours.

...Broyles.. 10/25/2023

$$

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