Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 24 2023 16:31:07 ACUS01 KWNS 241631 SWODY1 SPC AC 241629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or wind are possible through tonight across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, and over portions of the Upper Midwest. ....Southeast Arizona/southern New Mexico to west Texas... Within the southern stream of a split flow regime, an upper low near Baja will continue to shift eastward over northwest Mexico through tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and differential heating over higher terrain will influence a further increase in thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas. Upwards of 500-1300 J/kg MLCAPE and ample effective shear, aided by strengthening/diffluent south-southwesterly winds aloft, will support isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds. Storms are likely to further increase/linearly organize this evening as they progress east-northeastward across southeast New Mexico into west Texas, with a continued risk for locally severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail potentially continuing into the overnight. ....Upper Midwest... Bands of thunderstorms, including some strong/severe across Wisconsin, are ongoing from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin and Lake Michigan vicinity at midday. This regime is occurring to the west of an MCV across northern Lower Michigan, and to the north of a front across the upper Mississippi Valley. Convection will continue to increase and move east-northeastward through the afternoon. This majority of this convection will be at least slightly elevated, with seemingly limited/uncertain potential for surface-based storms near/southeast of the surface front and surface low. Thus, the primary risk should be sporadic/isolated severe hail regionally, with some possibility for strong wind gusts, particularly with any storms evolving in closer proximity to the surface front. ...Guyer/Flournoy.. 10/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .