Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 24 2023 08:54:05

ACUS48 KWNS 240854
SWOD48
SPC AC 240852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough over the western U.S. on Day 4/Fri will
shift east across the Plains toward the MS Valley vicinity through
Day 6/Sun. At the surface, a cold front will slowly shift southeast
across parts of the central/southern Plains, Mid-MS Valley and Great
Lakes vicinity on Day 4/Fri before stalling on Day 5/Sat. Given
persistent moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a moist
boundary-layer, areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue
from OK/KS into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. However, destabilization
will be greatly limited by ongoing precipitation, cloudiness and
poor lapse rates. This should limit severe potential, though if any
stronger heating can occur, some strong storms are possible
somewhere from Oklahoma toward the Mid-MS Valley mainly on Day
4/Fri.

By Day 6/Sun, the stalled front should surge south and east toward
the western Gulf of Mexico and the Appalachians as the western upper
trough ejects east and strong surface high pressure builds south
over the Rockies and into the Plains by Day 7/Mon morning.

Large spread among guidance beyond Sunday limits predictability. But
given a rather strong cold frontal surge and surface high pressure
building east across the central U.S., severe potential will likely
be low Day 7-8/Mon-Tue.

...Leitman.. 10/24/2023

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