Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 24 2023 05:51:35 ACUS01 KWNS 240551 SWODY1 SPC AC 240550 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS...FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or wind are possible through tonight across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, and over portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ....Southern NM into west and northwest TX... A mid-level low/trough will move east across northern Mexico through tonight and approach southwest TX by early Wednesday morning. The split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will coincide with a lack of appreciable cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. A weak surface trough/dryline feature will extend southward from an area of low pressure over the central High Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow will facilitate the maintenance of a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the Pecos River Valley (60-65 deg F surface dewpoints). As large-scale mid-level forcing for ascent impinges on the western edge of the moist/unstable sector, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon. Some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of buoyancy owing to some cloud cover (especially farther west in proximity to the mid-level low), but at least 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast across much of this area. A gradual strengthening of flow will favor organized storms with the stronger updrafts. Isolated severe hail should be the main threat with the more discrete activity. Low to mid-level flow is forecast to increase during the evening. Upscale growth from a few clusters into a large band of storms is expected during the overnight as this activity moves towards the Caprock late. Isolated severe gusts will transition to be the primary severe concern during the overnight. ....Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A cluster of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing this morning over WI near the nose of a LLJ/low-level warm advection regime. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) and ample deep-layer shear, will combine to support an environment for the stronger storms to be capable of an isolated hail risk. This activity will probably continue and move farther east during the day into northern Lower MI. with some additional storm development possible west of the MS River in southeast MN during the afternoon near a southward-sagging front. A lingering risk hail/wind risk may accompany the stronger storms during the afternoon/early evening before weakening. ...Smith/Wendt.. 10/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .