Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 24 2023 01:14:34

ACUS01 KWNS 240114
SWODY1
SPC AC 240112

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered large hail will be possible late this evening
into the overnight across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and
eastward into Wisconsin.

....Synopsis...
A split flow upper-air pattern is forecast tonight over the western
half of the Lower 48 states.  Water-vapor imagery early this evening
shows a large-scale trough rotating across southern CA and Baja
California.  In the low levels, a warm front will advance north
across portions of the Midwest as an elongated warm air conveyor
belt extends from the southern Great Plains arcing north-northeast
into the Great Lakes.

....IA/MN/WI...
Latest surface observations show the northern periphery of richer
moisture has moved into western IA/eastern NE.  The 00z Omaha raob
featured 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and moderate buoyancy.
The LLJ is forecast to intensify this evening and focus large-scale
ascent mainly in the form of isentropic ascent/warm-air advection in
the vicinity of the warm front.  Recent time-lagged HRRR model runs
indicate isolated to scattered storms developing farther west and
near the MO River by late this evening.  This activity seems to
favor a west-east corridor across northern IA and perhaps far
southern MN.  Given the favorable lapse rates and deep-layer shear
profiles supporting the potential for updraft rotation, have
introduced a small 15-percent hail probability (Slight Risk).

....Rio Grande/western part of the Edwards Plateau...
The 00z Del Rio raob showed relatively weak lapse rates above the
boundary layer, indicative of moisture via decayed TC remnants.
Despite the lack of lightning and weak updraft development through
early evening, a low probability for a strong updraft could
materialize later tonight across this region as southerly 850-mb
flow strengthens.  However, it seems the risk for severe will be
limited by overall weak buoyancy/lapse rates.

...Smith.. 10/24/2023

$$

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