Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 23 2023 08:12:01

FOUS30 KWBC 230811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 23 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 24 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH OF THE
BIG BEND OF TEXAS TO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

PW values are expected to become very anomalous...2 to 3 standard
deviations above the mean...in a southwest to northeast axis
across portions of Texas from the Big Bend into Northwest Texas
during the upcoming day 1 period.  This is in response to
strengthening south southeasterly low level flow off the western
Gulf, northwestward through the Lower Rio Grande and into the
Southern Plains ahead of overall amplifying upper trof over
Southern California and the northeastward ejection of mid level
energy associated with the remnants of Norma across north central
Mexico and into western Texas.  The latest hi res model consensus
is for increasing precip coverage Monday afternoon, with an
organized southwest to northeast oriented convective line sometime
after 0000 UTC 10/24, with potential for training of cells in a
southwest to northeasterly direction from the Big Bend,
northeastward into Northwest TX Monday night into early Tuesday.=20
In areas of training, hourly rainfall amounts of 1-2" are
possible.  The slight risk area matches well with where HREF
neighborhood probabilities are high, 40-90% for 1"+ 2"+ totals day
1.  This area also corresponds well with the area of high 1"+ EAS
probabilities, 40-90%  and a smaller area of 2"+ EAS
probabilities, 10-50%.  Much of this area has been dry over the
past several weeks, but the expected rainfall rates will still
pose a threat of runoff issues.  The latest CSU first guess fields
show a fairly large slight risk area, larger than the day 1.  The
latest CSU first guess is a significant increase in coverage from
the old day 2.

Oravec=20=20


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4HtMcXdCuHQkgMuwDyEC4bBG_zOcf_E7UBfGVqiHyXlX=
KJwHtc-HcAxld54GzLZqXw1xuCnEleigZP3hV5Uh3jVt0nU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4HtMcXdCuHQkgMuwDyEC4bBG_zOcf_E7UBfGVqiHyXlX=
KJwHtc-HcAxld54GzLZqXw1xuCnEleigZP3hV5Uh7p8lheg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4HtMcXdCuHQkgMuwDyEC4bBG_zOcf_E7UBfGVqiHyXlX=
KJwHtc-HcAxld54GzLZqXw1xuCnEleigZP3hV5Uh5mbdoUk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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