Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 23 2023 07:30:01 ACUS03 KWNS 230729 SWODY3 SPC AC 230729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of central into western north Texas on Wednesday. ....Central into Western North Texas... The southern stream upper trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies will lift northeast across the southern Plains through the period. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough, with a 60-80 kt 500 mb jet streak forecast to move across parts of western/central TX and OK. At the surface, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place. How much destabilization will occur remains uncertain due to cloud cover, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms across western TX Wednesday morning. Most guidance suggests at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is within reach. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 45 kt are forecast, and modestly curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above around 2-3 km suggest at least transient supercells capable of hail will be possible. Given the strength of deep-layer flow, if enough low-level destabilization can occur, locally strong gusts also may be possible. ....KS/NE/IA Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday ahead of a surface low meandering eastward across NE through the afternoon/evening. Large-scale ascent will be somewhat more nebulous across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity, with the southern Plains upper trough remaining too far south, and the northern stream upper trough remaining too far west. Nevertheless, strong warm advection will support a moistening boundary-layer as a warm front lifts north across the Mid-MO Valley. Deep-layer flow will not be as strong as further south, but marginal effective shear magnitudes could support some transient organized cells. However, forecast guidance indicates only weak destabilization due to limited heating and generally poor lapse rates. Furthermore, some guidance suggests stronger inhibition via warmer midlevels will preclude surface-based convection. ...Leitman.. 10/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .