Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 22 2023 19:52:26

ACUS01 KWNS 221952
SWODY1
SPC AC 221950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Aside from minor line adjustments for occasional lightning flashes
in NE, the only notable change with this update has been to add a
general thunderstorm area across parts of coastal/southeast TX.
Here, isolated convection may occur through tonight in a moist and
modestly unstable environment.

...Gleason.. 10/22/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023/

....Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts three primary midlevel troughs
that will aid in thunderstorm development over parts of the central
Plains into the mid/upper MS Valley, the southern High Plains, and
portions of northern CA and the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

The first of these shortwave troughs will advance eastward from the
central Rockies into the mid/upper MS Valley, maintaining a broad
plume of downstream isentropic ascent and weak elevated buoyancy.
Very isolated lightning flashes will be possible over the central
Plains today, with more substantial elevated thunderstorms expected
over IA during the overnight/morning hours -- where warm-air
advection will be maximized amid steepening midlevel lapse rates.
Small hail cannot be entirely ruled out, though modest cloud-layer
shear and buoyancy will limit severe potential. Over the southern
High Plains, ample subtropical moisture and broad midlevel troughing
downstream of TC Norma will support isolated thunderstorms during
the overnight hours -- aided by weak low-level warm-air advection.
An isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out over the
central Gulf Coast in TX overnight, given a moist air mass and
eroding inhibition. However, weak large-scale ascent should result
in limited storm coverage -- precluding a General Thunderstorm area.
Finally, large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel trough moving
inland over northern CA/southern OR will favor isolated thunderstorm
development through the period. Weak buoyancy will generally limit
thunderstorm intensity here.

$$

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