Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 22 2023 17:31:55

ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts
of IA and vicinity, aided by low-level warm/moist advection
associated with a southwesterly low-level jet. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough is forecast to continue moving eastward from the
Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes through the day, with low
thunderstorm chances likewise shifting eastward across these
regions. In the wake of this lead shortwave trough, additional
low-level warm advection attendant to a renewed, strong low-level
jet is expected Monday evening/night from the central Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest. Steepening mid-level lapse rates along
with increasing moisture should act to strengthen MUCAPE through the
night along/north of a developing warm front. But, the lack of
focused large-scale ascent will probably keep overall thunderstorm
coverage fairly isolated through the end of the period early Tuesday
morning. While small hail could occur with any robust elevated
convection that develops in the strong low-level warm advection
regime given sufficient deep-layer shear, the potential for severe
hail still appears generally low.

The sheared mid-level remnants of TC Norma will move northeastward
across northern Mexico and parts of west/central TX through Monday
night. Low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming
northward across the southern/central Plains through the period,
with a weak surface trough/dryline delineating the western extent of
this moisture over the southern High Plains. Some high-resolution
guidance shows the potential for more robust destabilization ahead
of the TC's remnants across parts of southwest TX near the Big Bend.
But, the more likely scenario is that considerable cloudiness and
modest to poor mid-level lapse rates will hamper daytime heating and
instability to some extent, and limit thunderstorm intensity with
any convection that can form late Monday afternoon or evening.
Although both low-level and deep-layer shear appear conditionally
favorable for organized updrafts across this region, the uncertainty
regarding destabilization precludes adding low severe probabilities
at this time.

...Gleason.. 10/22/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.