Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 22 2023 16:30:25

ACUS01 KWNS 221630
SWODY1
SPC AC 221628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts three primary midlevel troughs
that will aid in thunderstorm development over parts of the central
Plains into the mid/upper MS Valley, the southern High Plains, and
portions of northern CA and the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

The first of these shortwave troughs will advance eastward from the
central Rockies into the mid/upper MS Valley, maintaining a broad
plume of downstream isentropic ascent and weak elevated buoyancy.
Very isolated lightning flashes will be possible over the central
Plains today, with more substantial elevated thunderstorms expected
over IA during the overnight/morning hours -- where warm-air
advection will be maximized amid steepening midlevel lapse rates.
Small hail cannot be entirely ruled out, though modest cloud-layer
shear and buoyancy will limit severe potential. Over the southern
High Plains, ample subtropical moisture and broad midlevel troughing
downstream of TC Norma will support isolated thunderstorms during
the overnight hours -- aided by weak low-level warm-air advection.
An isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out over the
central Gulf Coast in TX overnight, given a moist air mass and
eroding inhibition. However, weak large-scale ascent should result
in limited storm coverage -- precluding a General Thunderstorm area.
Finally, large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel trough moving
inland over northern CA/southern OR will favor isolated thunderstorm
development through the period. Weak buoyancy will generally limit
thunderstorm intensity here.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 10/22/2023

$$

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