Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 22 2023 12:33:53

ACUS01 KWNS 221233
SWODY1
SPC AC 221232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
A trio of shortwave troughs approaching the CA/OR coast, the central
High Plains, and the southern Gulf of CA will be the primary drivers
of thunderstorm potential today through tonight. Elevated convection
rooted above 700 mb may persist from northeast CO into the Mid-MO
Valley today with sporadic/very isolated thunderstorms possible.
More probable thunderstorm development is expected tonight in the
exit region of a strengthening central Great Plains low-level jet,
focused on the IA vicinity overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will
similarly be possible, mainly late tonight, across parts of the TX
Trans-Pecos as modest low-level warm/moist advection spreads east of
northern Mexico. Finally, isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible across parts of the Sacramento Valley and northern Great
Basin/Rockies this afternoon/evening, downstream of the Pacific
coast shortwave trough where buoyancy will remain meager.

...Grams/Goss.. 10/22/2023

$$

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