Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 22 2023 07:11:53

ACUS03 KWNS 220711
SWODY3
SPC AC 220710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms capable of producing hail are possible
across parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa and western
Wisconsin on Tuesday.

....Upper MS Valley...

Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a shortwave impulse moving
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. The timing
of this feature has also trended faster, exiting the region by late
afternoon. While this will result in somewhat ill-timed large-scale
ascent across the region, a strong warm advection regime ahead of a
surface low and southeastward-sagging cold front will still foster
thunderstorm activity. Cool temperatures aloft will support modest
midlevel lapse rates, and increasing southwesterly low-level flow
will transport 60s F surface dewpoints north and east into southeast
MN and southern/central WI. Modest destabilization coupled with
elongated forecast hodographs suggest some potential for marginally
severe hail is possible with the strongest storms through early
evening.

....Southern/Central Plains...

An upper trough over the Lower CO Valley and northwest Mexico will
slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies on Tuesday. Moderate
southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread portions of the
southern/central Plains ahead of this feature. Southerly low-level
flow will maintain a reservoir of Gulf moisture to the east of a
surface trough/dryline extending southward from western KS toward
the TX/NM border. Cloud cover and showers early in the period may
limit destabilization through peak heating. More focused large-scale
ascent will move over the southern High Plains after 00z and
additional thunderstorm development is likely during the
evening/early overnight hours. However, waning instability after
sunset will likely limit severe potential.

...Leitman.. 10/22/2023

$$

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