Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 22 2023 05:18:23

ACUS02 KWNS 220518
SWODY2
SPC AC 220516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

....Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough migrating through broader upper ridging
centered over the Midwest will lift northeast from MN/IA through the
upper Great Lakes and into southern Ontario on Monday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the
period in association with this feature across IA/MN/WI. This
activity will shift east into MI during the afternoon/evening. Poor
surface heating and weak lapse rates will limit destabilization, and
severe storms are not expected.

Further west, an upper trough over the Great Basin/CA will develop
east/southeast across the western states through early Tuesday
morning. As this occurs, modestly enhanced southwesterly deep-layer
flow is forecast across the southern Plains. Southerly low-level
winds will support northward transport of Gulf moisture, and a
tongue of low/mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected across much
of TX/OK into the Mid-MO Valley. Despite increasing moisture in
TX/OK, somewhat warm midlevel temperatures will lead to poor lapse
rates, precluding stronger instability. A shortwave impulse
migrating through southwesterly flow ahead of the western trough
will support shower and thunderstorm development, especially from
west-central into north TX and southern OK. However, severe
potential appears limited.

...Leitman.. 10/22/2023

$$

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