Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 21 2023 19:48:20

ACUS01 KWNS 211948
SWODY1
SPC AC 211946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
The western portion of the general thunderstorm area across parts of
New England has been trimmed as an upper trough and related surface
low continue northeastward off the Atlantic Coast. The best chance
for lighting with convection will likely remain offshore where
stronger low-level warm advection is occurring. Still, some chance
for isolated lighting flashes remains possible through early this
evening across parts of coastal New England.

...Gleason.. 10/21/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023/

....Synopsis...
Embedded within an amplified large-scale trough over the
northeastern CONUS, latest water vapor imagery shows a pronounced
midlevel impulse pivoting northeastward off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. This feature will continue northeastward and
eventually northward today, while a related surface cyclone tracks
northward along the New England coast. Cold midlevel temperatures
atop a relatively moist boundary layer will support sufficient
(albeit weak) instability for isolated lightning flashes embedded
within a larger swath of precipitation overspreading coastal New
England this afternoon/early evening -- aided by the large-scale
ascent glancing the region. Overall, the more robust thunderstorm
activity should remain offshore, where forcing for ascent will be
stronger amid higher low-level theta-e.

Farther west, isolated thunderstorms were noted over Lake Michigan
this morning, in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet
crossing the upper/middle MS Valley region. However, any
continuation of this activity across the region should remain too
limited in coverage for a General Thunderstorm area.

$$

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