Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 21 2023 17:12:19

ACUS02 KWNS 211712
SWODY2
SPC AC 211710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
western states on Sunday. Cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
daytime heating may allow for weak destabilization to occur across
parts of the northern Sacramento Valley in CA by Sunday afternoon.
Occasional lightning flashes may occur with any low-topped
convection that can develop over this area. Otherwise, isolated
thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the
northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies as large-scale ascent
preceding the upper trough spreads eastward through the period.
Limited low-level moisture and weak instability are expected to
preclude organized severe thunderstorm potential.

Across the Plains, a southerly low-level jet will continue to
transport moisture northward across TX/OK into KS and vicinity
through Sunday night. Some potential for elevated convection may
exist mainly Sunday evening/night near the terminus of the low-level
jet across parts of the mid MO Valley. MUCAPE is forecast to remain
too weak (generally 500 J/kg or less) to support a meaningful hail
threat with any thunderstorms that can develop.

...Gleason.. 10/21/2023

$$

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