Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 21 2023 16:22:19

ACUS01 KWNS 211622
SWODY1
SPC AC 211620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Embedded within an amplified large-scale trough over the
northeastern CONUS, latest water vapor imagery shows a pronounced
midlevel impulse pivoting northeastward off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. This feature will continue northeastward and
eventually northward today, while a related surface cyclone tracks
northward along the New England coast. Cold midlevel temperatures
atop a relatively moist boundary layer will support sufficient
(albeit weak) instability for isolated lightning flashes embedded
within a larger swath of precipitation overspreading coastal New
England this afternoon/early evening -- aided by the large-scale
ascent glancing the region. Overall, the more robust thunderstorm
activity should remain offshore, where forcing for ascent will be
stronger amid higher low-level theta-e.

Farther west, isolated thunderstorms were noted over Lake Michigan
this morning, in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet
crossing the upper/middle MS Valley region. However, any
continuation of this activity across the region should remain too
limited in coverage for a General Thunderstorm area.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 10/21/2023

$$

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