Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 21 2023 08:20:56

FOUS30 KWBC 210820
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023 - 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023

.....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND...

Expanded the southern boundary of the Marginal into Southern New
England where the 21/00Z HREF showed widely scattered areas where
the 40-km neighborhood probability reached 20 percent during the
afternoon.  This appears to be coincident where the NAM and GFS
showed potential instability immediately ahead of an approaching
region of synoptic-scale lift.  However...the model to model
placement did not line up terribly well either spatially or
temporally which limits the confidence to a Marginal area. On the
other hand...the one point of agreement was the focus for the
developing coastal low to be farther south which also supports the
subtle southward expansion. Otherwise...the changes made on Friday
were largely in place this morning.  The instability is still
expected to be meager which limits the instantaneous rainfall
rates. Total rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected in the MRGL
risk area. Localized runoff concerns, especially over urban
regions and areas susceptible to flash flooding, are possible.

Bann


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-A9fu5ntS4boeGf73dEP1gMDAb67U-Pn1usr0CzYRDr0=
GT9S-WGu1vZHczN1TlXMKkys0XgpIRKFW_Sx10Ry1MhEt5o$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-A9fu5ntS4boeGf73dEP1gMDAb67U-Pn1usr0CzYRDr0=
GT9S-WGu1vZHczN1TlXMKkys0XgpIRKFW_Sx10Ryeronj0M$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-A9fu5ntS4boeGf73dEP1gMDAb67U-Pn1usr0CzYRDr0=
GT9S-WGu1vZHczN1TlXMKkys0XgpIRKFW_Sx10RyMGMgxk0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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