Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 19:48:42 ACUS01 KWNS 201948 SWODY1 SPC AC 201946 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will remain possible with scattered thunderstorms across the Southeast through early evening. ....20Z Update... Based on recent observational trends, minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of east-central GA and south-central/southeastern NC. Convection that has developed across these areas should continue to pose a threat for strong to locally damaging downdraft winds through the early evening as it spreads generally east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Some of the more robust updrafts may also be capable of producing marginally severe hail, up to about 1 inch in diameter. Weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 2254 and 2255 for more details on the short-term threat from east-central GA into SC and south-central NC. ...Gleason.. 10/20/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023/ ....Southeast States... A band of showers with some embedded thunderstorms is ongoing at midday across the Piedmont of the Carolinas into southeast Georgia. With limited cloud cover, ample insolation is occurring ahead of these showers/storms with surface dewpoints commonly in the 50s F. While overall buoyancy and convergence will remain limited, some intensification of thunderstorms may occur toward the coastal plain in association with this existing band of convection/forcing for ascent. Associated with strengthening winds aloft, strong deep-layer shear (35-45 kt effective) could support a few transient/weakly rotating updrafts, which could yield marginally severe hail, with storms otherwise capable of gusty winds as the boundary layer warms this afternoon. Farther to the northwest, a secondary lobe of ascent tied to the mid-level vorticity max approaching the southern Appalachians, in conjunction with cooling mid-level temperatures, should compensate for more muted surface heating and support a few transient updrafts with mid-level rotation spreading across parts of South Carolina and southern North Carolina. This scenario will be somewhat contingent on adequate cloud breaks/insolation in the wake of the lead convection, but a second round of small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph will be possible before this convection weakens after sunset. ....Mid-Atlantic... A strong storm or two with gusty winds could occur late this afternoon into evening within a modestly moist/unstable environment near the deepening surface low and eastward-advancing front. Current expectations are for organized severe potential to remain low this far north given the limited thermodynamic environment. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .