Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2255
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 18:46:12

ACUS11 KWNS 201846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201845=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-202115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Areas affected...Northeast GA...western/central SC...and
southwest/south-central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201845Z - 202115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe gusts and
marginal hail are possible. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...During the next few hours, increasing thunderstorm
development is expected along/east of the southern Appalachians, as
a cold front continues east-southeastward into the area. This
activity will be aided by strengthening upper-level divergence in
the left exit region of a robust mid/upper-level jet crossing the
OH/TN Valleys. While pre-convective instability will remain
marginal, boundary-layer heating/mixing in the wake of earlier
convection, coupled with steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, will
yield sufficient instability for isolated to widely scattered
low-topped thunderstorms. Strengthening mid/upper-level westerlies
associated with the approaching jet max will contribute to 30-45 kt
of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight hodograph.=20

As a result, several loosely organized clusters/line segments and
perhaps transient low-topped supercell structures are possible
through the afternoon. Strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph)
and marginal hail (up to 1 inch diameter) could accompany the
more-organized storms. However, the weak instability and veered
pre-frontal low-level winds should generally limit storm intensity,
and a watch is not currently expected.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 10/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Lz1vxP8QczRQ7KvApxDUeTxZ8BchI9Qia_RdWkQJlr-njeUKg3sfjzpdaaA52ZlaR_zleZak=
eK_amFD0Ht9xaQdxBk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34158329 34618302 35408200 35798117 35818075 35618025
            35128023 34828030 34428046 33868101 33498162 33338226
            33308285 33418320 33748334 34158329=20


=3D =3D =3D
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