Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 17:17:10

ACUS02 KWNS 201717
SWODY2
SPC AC 201715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move quickly east-northeastward across the
Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and western Atlantic on Saturday. A
secondary upper trough is also forecast to shift from the Midwest
across the eastern states through the period. A surface low
near/over southern New England Saturday morning should encourage
sufficient boundary-layer moisture to advect northward while cooling
temperatures aloft associated with the lead upper trough aids in
weak destabilization. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible
across parts of eastern MA, RI, and vicinity, although severe storms
are not expected due to weak forecast instability/shear. The
secondary shortwave trough later in the period will bring a
reinforcing dry continental airmass across the eastern third of the
CONUS, with stable conditions very likely precluding additional
thunderstorm activity.

Across the western states, upper ridging will shift slowly eastward,
enveloping much of the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Dry and
stable conditions beneath the upper ridge are forecast to preclude
appreciable thunderstorm potential west of the MS River, despite a
weak shortwave impulse migrating through the ridge over the Four
Corners and central Rockies vicinity.

...Gleason.. 10/20/2023

$$

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