Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 16:24:41

ACUS01 KWNS 201624
SWODY1
SPC AC 201623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will
be possible with scattered thunderstorms across the Southeast this
afternoon through early evening.

....Southeast States...
A band of showers with some embedded thunderstorms is ongoing at
midday across the Piedmont of the Carolinas into southeast Georgia.
With limited cloud cover, ample insolation is occurring ahead of
these showers/storms with surface dewpoints commonly in the 50s F.
While overall buoyancy and convergence will remain limited, some
intensification of thunderstorms may occur toward the coastal plain
in association with this existing band of convection/forcing for
ascent. Associated with strengthening winds aloft, strong deep-layer
shear (35-45 kt effective) could support a few transient/weakly
rotating updrafts, which could yield marginally severe hail, with
storms otherwise capable of gusty winds as the boundary layer warms
this afternoon.

Farther to the northwest, a secondary lobe of ascent tied to the
mid-level vorticity max approaching the southern Appalachians, in
conjunction with cooling mid-level temperatures, should compensate
for more muted surface heating and support a few transient updrafts
with mid-level rotation spreading across parts of South Carolina and
southern North Carolina. This scenario will be somewhat contingent
on adequate cloud breaks/insolation in the wake of the lead
convection, but a second round of small to marginally severe hail
and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph will be possible before this
convection weakens after sunset.

....Mid-Atlantic...
A strong storm or two with gusty winds could occur late this
afternoon into evening within a modestly moist/unstable environment
near the deepening surface low and eastward-advancing front. Current
expectations are for organized severe potential to remain low this
far north given the limited thermodynamic environment.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 10/20/2023

$$

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