Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 12:07:10

ACUS01 KWNS 201207
SWODY1
SPC AC 201205

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to localized severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail
will be possible with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
to early evening.

....Southeast...
Ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are already
farther south and east than the bulk of 00Z to overnight CAM
guidance. This warm conveyor-driven activity should persist east and
likely intensify midday to early afternoon as it approaches the
South Atlantic coastal plain with abundant insolation expected
downstream. Limited boundary-layer moisture will be the primary
factor mitigating a more robust severe weather threat today as
MLCAPE remains below 1000 J/kg. Even so, an intense mid-level jet
impinging on the basal portion of a broad trough will aid in
strengthening deep-layer speed shear across the southern part of the
severe threat area, centered on southeast GA. This may yield a few
transient rotating updrafts focused near the Savannah River. The
relatively early timing of the leading zone of ascent suggests that
surface gusts will probably peak in the 45-60 mph range, along with
small to marginally severe hail, before shifting offshore.

A secondary lobe of ascent tied to the mid-level vorticity max
approaching the southern Appalachians in conjunction with cooling
mid-level temperatures should compensate for more muted surface
heating and support a few transient updrafts with mid-level rotation
spreading southeast across SC and southern NC. While this scenario
will be somewhat contingent on adequate cloud breaks/insolation in
the wake of the lead convection, a second round of small to
marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph will be
possible before this convection weakens after sunset.

...Grams/Goss.. 10/20/2023

$$

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