Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 08:26:38

FOUS30 KWBC 200826
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023 - 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann




Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 21 2023 - 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Northeast...
Precipitable water values will be increasing ahead of an eastward
advancing upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest on Friday with
values forecast to locally exceed 1.2 inches from the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England. A zone of 30 to 50
kt of southerly flow at 850 mb will focus from New Jersey into and
across NYC/Long Island into southern New England beneath areas of
upper divergence and diffluence associated with an increasingly
negatively tilted trough axis aloft. Modest moisture values and
forecasts of only weak instability (~500 J/kg or less MUCAPE)
should limit rainfall rates across the Northeast. However, the
potential will exist for localized rainfall rates near 1 in/hr and
highly localized 2 inch per 3 hour totals. While the threat for
exceedance of FFG is non-zero, it is considered too low to warrant
a risk area for the Day 2 outlook. Areas of heavy rain will
continue through Friday night into Saturday across the Northeast,
with a Marginal Risk forecast for the Day 3 outlook.

Otto


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6G735Y6aZeogDjZRNCN3SveAahqcLvWVv1tAx4VZEzUd=
JeaKouKtb7bIFZT7mt-aVb0rvqqEl00v5X_Vd7TLCfSACl0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6G735Y6aZeogDjZRNCN3SveAahqcLvWVv1tAx4VZEzUd=
JeaKouKtb7bIFZT7mt-aVb0rvqqEl00v5X_Vd7TLROw2f70$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6G735Y6aZeogDjZRNCN3SveAahqcLvWVv1tAx4VZEzUd=
JeaKouKtb7bIFZT7mt-aVb0rvqqEl00v5X_Vd7TLzzBNMnU$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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