Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 20 2023 04:51:36 ACUS01 KWNS 200451 SWODY1 SPC AC 200450 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Atlantic Piedmont into coastal plain this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ....Synopsis... High moisture content air remains largely confined to areas along and south of a remnant frontal zone across the western Caribbean and southeast of the Florida Straits into the Bahamas. Little change appears likely through this period, as one surface wave forming near the Gulf Stream migrates northeastward well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard by late tonight, downstream of initially amplified large-scale mid-level troughing east of the Mississippi Valley. One vigorous short wave perturbation embedded within this troughing is forecast to pivot across the southern Appalachians through southern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening, accompanied by strong mid-level height falls, and deepening surface low pressure from the lee of the Blue Ridge into areas offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z Saturday. ....South Atlantic Seaboard... Downstream of a 70-90 kt 500 mb speed maximum, gradually propagating southeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may maintain a band of convection and embedded thunderstorms east of the southern Appalachians through the southern Atlantic coast during the day. Modest low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, and initially modest steepening of lapse rates, appear likely to yield thermodynamic profiles with generally negligible severe weather potential. However, in the wake of this convective band, a corridor of more substantive boundary-layer warming across parts of the eastern Georgia and Carolina Piedmont, prior to stronger mid-level cooling spreading east of the southern Appalachians during the mid to late afternoon, may contribute to considerable steepening of low through mid-level lapse rates. Preceded by weak boundary-layer moistening, and coinciding with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, the environment may become conducive to scattered low-topped convection potentially supportive of marginally severe wind and hail. This activity may develop southeastward into the coastal plain by this evening, before weakening over inland areas. ...Kerr/Wendt.. 10/20/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .