Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 19 2023 19:48:05

ACUS01 KWNS 191948
SWODY1
SPC AC 191946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 10/19/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023/

....Synopsis...
A midlevel trough over the mid MS Valley this morning will continue
east-southeastward over the TN/OH Valleys through tonight,
downstream from a pronounced ridge over the western CONUS.  In
association with the midlevel trough, a surface cyclone will develop
eastward from WI/Upper MI toward Lower MI, while a cold front moves
southeastward into the Mid South and OH Valley.  A modifying Gulf of
Mexico air mass is spreading northeastward in advance of the cold
front, though regional 12z soundings suggest that low-midlevel
moisture and lapse rates will remain modest and will limit buoyancy.
 The relatively greater buoyancy (MLCAPE generally <500 J/kg) will
be closer to the Ark-La-Miss, though this area will be behind the
initial midlevel trough (moving over the area now).  Overall, any
potential for strong-severe storms this afternoon into early tonight
is too low to warrant any outlook areas.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may approach eastern NC/Outer
Banks late today into tonight, though the primary buoyancy with the
modifying air mass will remain over the Gulf Stream.  Isolated
thunderstorms may also form close to extreme southeast FL and the
Keys near a slowly weakening front across the FL Straits.

$$

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