Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 19 2023 08:45:00

ACUS48 KWNS 190844
SWOD48
SPC AC 190843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough
will drop southward/southeastward into northern/central CA on
D4/Sunday, continuing southward through the western Great Basin and
southern CA on D5/Monday while further maturing into a closed
cyclone. This cyclone is then expected to make gradual eastward
progress across the Southwest and northern Mexico on D6/Tuesday.
Uncertainty increases notable on D7/Wednesday, with guidance
differing on when this wave ejects into the Plains.

Robust low-level moisture is anticipated ahead of this shortwave,
and there could be some isolated severe on D6/Tuesday across the
central Plains as this moisture interacts with a southward-moving
cold front. This front will likely stall, leaving much of the
low-level moisture in place across the central and southern Plains
downstream of the cyclone. Some severe is possible if this cyclone
ejects quickly northeastward into Plains, as suggested by the last
few ECMWF runs. However, a slower solution, as suggested by GFS and
Canadian, would likely tend towards heavy rain instead of severe
thunderstorms.

...Mosier.. 10/19/2023

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