Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 19 2023 06:00:34 ACUS02 KWNS 190600 SWODY2 SPC AC 190558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NC... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast Georgia across central/eastern South Carolina into far southeast North Carolina. ....Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... Upper pattern is forecast to be characterized by an amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern early Friday morning. A strong shortwave trough is expected to progress through this troughing, moving quickly southeastward from the Lower OH Valley through the TN Valley and off the Southeast coast by late Friday evening/early Saturday morning. A cold front is expected to precede this shortwave, moving eastward across the OH and TN Valley and Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, is expected ahead of this front. This low-level moisture, coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures, will likely support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms. Veered surface winds will likely limit low-level convergence along and ahead of the front. However, strong large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will spread over the frontal zone, compensating for the lack of low-level convergence and supporting thunderstorm development. A narrow convective line will likely develop along the front, with additional development possible in the wake of the front along the upper trough axis. The strongest mid/upper level flow is expected to lag behind the front and upper trough. However, low to mid-level flow in the vicinity of the front still appears it will be strong enough to support a few more organized storms capable of damaging gusts. Greatest severe potential currently appears to be from southeast GA across central/eastern SC into far southeast NC, where modest diurnal heating and steep low-level lapse rates are expected. Thunderstorms are possible along both the front and upper trough farther north into the Mid-Atlantic, but buoyancy will be even more limited than areas farther south, with weaker shear as well. ...Mosier.. 10/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .