Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 19 2023 00:34:28

ACUS01 KWNS 190034
SWODY1
SPC AC 190033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

....01Z Update...
Convection, beneath the mid-level cold core of the low digging to
the east-southeast of the mid Missouri Valley, briefly produced some
lightning during the late afternoon near the western Minnesota/Iowa
border vicinity.  However, this appeared largely supported by
destabilization associated with insolation, and has diminished with
the loss of daytime heating.

More recently, some lightning has been noted within the convective
band ahead of the trailing short wave trough, along an associated
weak southeastward advancing cold front, to the west-northwest of
Springfield MO.  While this convective band could generate
additional lightning as it spreads eastward across the middle
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys overnight, it appears that this will
be rather sporadic and sparse, with destabilization forecast to
remain limited by only modest steepening of mid/upper lapse rates
and weak boundary-layer moisture return.

...Kerr.. 10/19/2023

$$

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